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Goldman Says Stocks May Dive 25% If 10-Year Yield Hits 4.5%

If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 4.5 percent by year-end, the economy would probably muddle through — stocks, not so much, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Goldman’s base-case scenario calls for a 10-year yield of 3.25 percent by the end of 2018, though a “stress test” out to 4.5 percent indicates such a move would cause stocks to tumble, economist Daan Struyven wrote in a note Saturday. He also said the economy would probably suffer a sharp slowdown but not a recession. “A rise in rates to 4.5…

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No Idea What MiFID Stands For? Here’s What You Need to Know

Everyone in European finance has been abuzz over an obscure acronym — MiFID II — that’s about to radically change how assets from stocks to commodities are traded and investors’ money is managed. Banks and asset managers across the European Union have spent more than $2 billion preparing for it. Regulators say it will protect investors, boost transparency and rebuild trust that was tarnished by the 2008 global crash. The industry has even spent months finding ways to sidestep parts of it. But you’d be forgiven for not paying attention:…

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Goldman Sees Crypto, Credit Shadowing Robust 2018 U.S. Economy

Financial imbalances including those in credit markets and cryptocurrencies will shadow an otherwise robust 2018 U.S. economy, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Jan Hatzius. Hatzius has already made some predictions for the new year: four Federal Reserve quickening to an average of 2.6 percent, the jobless rate not inverting. In a new report, Hatzius reiterated his expectation for overall economic strength, while flagging some concerns. “Asset valuations in some areas — especially credit — have risen to high levels by historical standards,” Hatzius said in the “10 Questions for…

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Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000

Michael Novogratz, the former macro manager who’s turned into one of the biggest champions of bitcoin, shelved plans to start a cryptocurrency hedge fund and predicted that the digital money may extend its plunge to $8,000. “We didn’t like market conditions and we wanted to re-evaluate what we’re doing,” Novogratz said Friday in a phone interview. “I look pretty smart pressing the pause button right now.” Novogratz, 53, said he told potential investors last week that he changed his mind, two days before his Galaxy Digital Assets Fund was due to…

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Bitcoin Is Now Bigger Than Buffett, Boeing and New Zealand

Bitcoin’s extraordinary price surge means its market capitalization now exceeds the annual output of whole economies, and the estimated worth of some of the world’s top billionaires. With the debate over its bubble status still raging, the flagship cryptocurrency continued its march higher on Monday, solidifying above $11,000 and bringing its climb this year to more than 1,000 percent. With market tracker avocados. Here are five things that have been eclipsed by bitcoin in terms of market capitalization: New Zealand’s GDP The South Pacific nation’s farm-and-tourism-led economy is valued at $185…

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No U.S. Bailout for Puerto Rican Debt, Trumps Budget Chief Says

President Donald Trump’s budget chief said not to take literally the president’s suggestion that Puerto Rico’s debt would be “wiped out,” even as the territory’s bonds plunged to a record low on Wednesday: 32 cents on the dollar. "I think what you heard the president say is that Puerto Rico is going to have to figure out a way to solve its debt problem,” Mick Mulvaney, director of the White House budget office, said in an interview Wednesday. Puerto Rico, ravaged by Hurricane Maria on Sept. 20, is dealing with…

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