Headlines 

Goldman Says Stocks May Dive 25% If 10-Year Yield Hits 4.5%

If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 4.5 percent by year-end, the economy would probably muddle through — stocks, not so much, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Goldman’s base-case scenario calls for a 10-year yield of 3.25 percent by the end of 2018, though a “stress test” out to 4.5 percent indicates such a move would cause stocks to tumble, economist Daan Struyven wrote in a note Saturday. He also said the economy would probably suffer a sharp slowdown but not a recession. “A rise in rates to 4.5…

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Headlines 

Markets Are About to Get Ugly According to These Charts

Optimism has peaked, according to two widely followed measures of U.S. economic sentiment. If history is any guide, bouts of equity volatility and plunging Treasury yields will soon follow. The U.S. Citi Economic Surprise index — the rate at which data exceeds analyst expectations — has started to fall after reaching a five-year high in December. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s index of the public’s uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy is climbing after reaching a three-year low in November. Though the economy remains strong, unbounded enthusiasm has run too…

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